I’ve got a new column up at UnHerd about what is shaping up to be the new geopolitical paradigm that will dominate European politics in the coming years: the shift of the EU’s centre of gravity to the East and the return of the East-West divide — and why it matters. Until recently, the turn towards “illiberal” or “post-liberal” democracy in various Central and Eastern European countries — most notably Hungary and Poland — was described as one of the greatest threats to the EU, with those nations branded as the bloc’s bêtes noires. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has changed everything. It has greatly enhanced the geostrategic importance of those countries that border Ukraine, Russia or Russian-controlled Belarus (or overlook the Northern Sea Route), thus dramatically tilting Europe’s geopolitical balance of power from the West to the East (and partly to the North). This will have momentous consequences for the EU, given that most Central and Eastern European countries are staunchly pro-US and pro-NATO — a position that is fundamentally incompatible with the aspirations of France and other Western European countries for greater “strategic autonomy” from the US. The East-West divide is back with a vengeance — and has the potential of bringing down the entire bloc. Read the article here.