The Russia-Ukraine conflict has had massive global economic repercussions — but the worst may be yet to come. I’ve written for UnHerd about the unraveling of two agreements put in place at the start of the Ukraine war to limit the global economic fallout from the conflict: the Black Sea Grain Initiative, whereby Russia allowed Ukraine to continue exporting grain via the Black Sea (which is under its control), and a deal that allowed Russian gas to continue flowing to Europe via Ukraine. The former has just been suspended, and the latter could soon be terminated. The Black Sea Grain Initiative, in particular, was an incredible achievement: for two countries engaged in a brutal war against each other, against the background of a global proxy war between the West and Russia, reaching an agreement of this kind was a big, if rare, victory for international diplomacy.
But with no end to the war in sight, and all sides engaged in increasingly brazen military brinkmanship, is anyone really surprised that a deal that hinged entirely on Russia’s goodwill has come undone? Meanwhile, Ukraine’s energy minister said that Kyiv is unlikely to renew the gas transit deal when Ukraine’s supply contract with Gazprom expires in 2024. In practice, this would mean the closure of one of the last arteries still carrying Russian gas to Europe, a move which would severely weaken many energy-dependent EU countries. For a continent already struggling with creeping deindustrialisation, the consequences could be devastating. Read the article here.
Thomas Fazi 